Assessing Historical Occupancy Trends in North American Flower Flies (Diptera: Syrphidae)
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given the declines occurring in many insect populations around the world, there is an urgent need to assess large-scale trends in important groups like pollinators. Museum data and biological collections present unique opportunities to assess population trends over long historical timescales. Here, I use a Bayesian multi-season, multi-species occupancy model to estimate long-term, range-wide occupancy changes for 318 North American syrphids, which are the most common pollinators of major crops after bees. Syrphids as a whole declined in occupancy by 10.5% between the periods of 1960–1990 and 1991–2020, but no overall trend was observed from an earlier baseline of 1900–1930. Species-specific declines outnumbered increases and were associated with smaller body size, predatory larvae, and the subfamily Syrphinae. I propose next steps to improve the reliability of this approach and address remaining knowledge gaps. Ultimately, these declines warrant further efforts to monitor and conserve syrphid populations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it