Limited durability of protection conferred by XBB.1.5 vaccines against omicron-associated severe outcomes among community-dwelling adults, Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We estimated XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization/death among adults aged ≥50 years in Ontario, Canada, from September 2023 to June 2024. Compared with non-XBB.1.5 vaccinees, the initial protection at 0-3 months was 64 % (95 %CI, 57 %-69 %) during XBB-sublineage predominance. It was reduced to 57 % (95 %CI, 48 %-64 %) when JN/KP-sublineages became predominant, and quickly declined. No significant protection was observed >6 months post-vaccination. The VE estimates were lower when the last vaccine dose in the reference group was given more recently than 12 months, or was the omicron-containing bivalent vaccine. Short durability of protection poses unique challenges for COVID-19 vaccination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".