How do practitioners gain confidence in assurance cases?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
CONTEXT: Assurance Cases (ACs) are prepared to argue that the system’s desired quality attributes (e.g., safety or security) are satisfied. While there is strong adoption of ACs, practitioners are often left asking an important question: are we confident that the claims made by the case are true? While many confidence assessment methods (CAMs) exist, little is known about the use of these methods in practice. OBJECTIVE: Develop an understanding of the current state of practice for AC confidence assessment: what methods are used in practice and what barriers exist for their use? METHOD: Structured interviews and an email questionnaire were used to gather data from practitioners with experience contributing to real-world ACs. Open-coding was performed on transcripts. A description of the current state of AC practice and future considerations for researchers was synthesized from the results. RESULTS: A total of n = 19 practitioners were interviewed. The most common CAMs were (peer-)review of ACs, dialectic reasoning (“defeaters”), and comparing against checklists. Some practitioners also used models to gain confidence in an AC. Participants preferred qualitative methods and expressed concerns about quantitative CAMs. Barriers to using CAMs included additional work, inadequate guidance, subjectivity and interpretation of results, and trustworthiness of methods. CONCLUSION: While many CAMs are described in the literature there is a gap between the proposed methods and needs of practitioners. Researchers working in this area should consider the need to: connect CAMs to established practices, use CAMs to communicate with interest holders, crystallize the details of CAM application, curate accessible guidance, and confirm that methods are trustworthy.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it