Integrating Complex Selection Rules Into the Latent Overlapping Group Lasso for the Construction of Coherent Prediction Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Prediction models are important in medical research, as such models enable health researchers to gain deeper insights into disease epidemiology and clinicians to identify patients at higher risk of adverse outcomes. One commonly employed approach to developing prediction models is variable selection through penalized regression. Integrating natural variable structures and predefined inclusion requirements into variable selection not only enhances model interpretability but can also potentially boost prediction accuracy. For example, the latent overlapping group Lasso can force the inclusion of the main terms in the resulting model if their interaction term is selected. However, when variable structures are complex, it is challenging to integrate such structures into the penalized regression. In this work, we first demonstrate how to convert variable structures and predefined variable inclusion requirements into "selection rules" (which represent rules for which or how variables can be included in the final prediction model) and present these rules mathematically. Then, we provide a structured approach for integrating complex rules into variable selection through the latent overlapping group Lasso so that the resulting prediction model follows the given selection rules. To illustrate our methodology, we applied these techniques to construct a coherent prediction model for major bleeding in hypertensive patients recently hospitalized for atrial fibrillation and subsequently prescribed oral anticoagulants. In this application, we account for a proxy of anticoagulant adherence and its interaction with dosage and the type of oral anticoagulants, in addition to drug-drug interactions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.028 | 0.058 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".