Global burden of prostate cancer in 38 OECD countries and its trend from 1990-2021: An Insight from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
e17005 Background: Prostate cancer (PC) remains a significant public health challenge across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, with its burden steadily increasing due to aging populations, lifestyle changes, and improved diagnostic capabilities. PC ranks as the fifth leading cause of death and the sixth leading cause of disability across the 38 member countries of the OECD. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease study 2021 methodology, we estimated incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to PC by age, sex, year and location across the 38 OECD countries from 1990-2021. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the total prevalence count due to PC increased from 2.9 million (95% UI: 2.8–3.0) to 7.1 million (6.7–7.3), while deaths rose from 128,547 (121,475–132,397) to 194,858 (175,334–205,941). The total disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) increased from 2.4 million (2.3–2.5) to 2.9 million (2.8–3.0). The highest annual percentage change (APC) in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was observed in the Republic of Korea (4.75%), followed by Estonia (4.00%), Latvia (3.30%), Poland (3.01%), Slovenia (2.83%), and Japan (2.50%). In contrast, a decline in ASIR was observed in the USA (-0.41%), Canada (-1.11%), Switzerland (-0.36%), and New Zealand (-0.16%) over the same period. Regarding the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), Latvia recorded the highest increase in APC (1.90%), followed by Lithuania (1.62%), Poland (1.48%), the Republic of Korea (1.42%), Slovenia (0.89%), and Costa Rica (0.49%). Age-wise, the highest increase in APC for incidence count was observed in individuals aged 95+ years (5.55%), followed by 90–94 years (4.42%), 50–54 years (3.24%), 85–89 years (3.06%), and 60–64 years (2.80%). In terms of mortality, the highest APC was recorded in the 95+ years group (5.46%), followed by 90–94 years (4.31%), 85–89 years (2.58%), 80–84 years (1.05%), 20–24 years (0.97%), and 70–74 years (0.84%). Conclusions: Deaths due to PC accounted for 6.095% of all cancer causalities in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of the disease showed a significant rise, with the highest increases in incidence observed in the Republic of Korea, Estonia, and Latvia, while the USA, Canada, and Switzerland saw declines. Mortality rates also surged in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, with the elderly population (95+ years) experiencing the steepest rise in both incidence and deaths, highlighting an urgent need for targeted interventions in high-risk regions and age groups.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".