The Impact of Shock-Responsive Social Cash Transfers: Evidence from an Aggregate Shock in Kenya
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the effects of a nationwide shock-responsive social cash transfer scheme during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on highly risk susceptible informal economy households in Kenya. Leveraging primary in-person survey data in a doubly robust difference-in-differences framework, we find that households receiving shock-responsive cash transfers were less likely to encounter income loss, poverty, and food scarcity compared to households not receiving them. The scheme also reduced the likelihood of engaging in costly risk coping such as selling productive assets. When comparing different pillars of the scheme with varying degrees of shock-responsiveness, we observe that the impacts were statistically significant only when payment cycles were pooled and the transfers were vertically scaled. The study adds to the global policy discussion on developing effective shock-responsive interventions, underscoring the merits of shock-responsive social cash transfers during crises.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it