Reactions to policy action: socio-political conditions of backlash to climate change policy
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Public policymaking on issues requiring ambitious yet socially and economically costly action can face backlash from target groups and wider audiences, threatening policy adoption and durability. As an abrupt negative reaction to policy action, backlash is challenging to study and requires distinctive analytical approaches. This is especially pressing for climate change mitigation policy, which faces growing yet dispersed empirical experiences of backlash. We develop a framework to study the socio-political conditions (economic, cultural, practical) under which backlash to climate policy occurs to enable comparative empirical analysis. We posit that backlash arises from significant incongruence between policy action and its socio-political context across one or more of these dimensions. We illustrate this approach using three cases of backlash to carbon pricing policy in Canada, France, and Mexico, revealing different ways in which incongruence can arise. Our analysis highlights the need for configurational explanations and a policy-in-context perspective when studying contentious reactions to policy action.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it