Short panel data quantile regression model with flexible correlated effects
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
I propose an alternative linear model for short panel data quantile regression. The model assumes a nonparametric correlated effect (CE) that is τ-quantile-specific and time-invariant. The resulting partially linear model provides inference robust to misspecification, and it is characterized as a best linear approximation to the truth under a generalized correlated random effect assumption. At the cost of modeling the individual heterogeneity, the model is free of incidental parameters, and it does not restrict within-group dependence of idiosyncratic errors at all. The modeled heterogeneity is still well-aligned with the fixed effect approach in the linear mean regression model. For estimation, sieve-approximated CE is regularized by nonconvex penalization which enjoys the oracle property against ultra-high dimensionality. Unpenalized sieve estimation is also available. As an empirical application, the proposed method is used to estimate the distributional effect of smoking on birth weights. Using a dataset where fixed effects quantile regression is computationally infeasible, the method yields more refined estimates compared to the one based on a linear CE.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it