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Record W4411001784 · doi:10.1136/bmjonc-2025-000787

Smoking habit and long-term colorectal cancer incidence by exome-wide mutational and neoantigen loads: evidence based on the prospective cohort incident-tumour biobank method

2025· article· en· W4411001784 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Tsuyoshi Hamada, Tomotaka Ugai, Carino Gurjao, Satoko Ugai, Xuehong Zhang, Koichiro Haruki, Yasutoshi Takashima, Naohiko Akimoto, Mai Chan Lau, Kosuke Matsuda, Nobuhiro Nakazawa, Mayu Higashioka, Satoshi Miyahara, Keisuke Kosumi, Yohei Masugi, Li Liu, Yin Cao, Daniel Nevo, Molin Wang, Reiko Nishihara, Sachet A. Shukla, Catherine J. Wu, Levi A. Garraway, Jeffrey A. Meyerhardt, Edward L. Giovannucci, Jonathan A. Nowak, Charles S. Fuchs, Andrew T. Chan, Mingyang Song, Marios Giannakis, Shuji Ogino

Bibliographic record

VenueBMJ Oncology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicColorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersGary Bennett Family FundNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney DiseasesStand Up To CancerEntertainment Industry FoundationNational Cancer InstituteNational Institutes of HealthAmerican Cancer Society
KeywordsBiobankMedicineColorectal cancerIncidence (geometry)Prospective cohort studyCohortOncologyCohort studyInternal medicineCancerBioinformaticsBiology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Objective To test the hypothesis that the association of smoking with long-term colorectal cancer incidence may be stronger for tumours with higher mutational and neoantigen loads. Methods and analysis In the Nurses’ Health Study (1980–2012) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986–2012), our novel prospective cohort incident-tumour biobank method (PCIBM) used 3053 incident colorectal carcinoma cases including 752 cases with whole-exome sequencing data. Using the multivariable duplication-method Cox regression model with the inverse probability weighting to adjust for the selection bias due to tissue availability, we assessed a differential association of cigarette smoking with colorectal carcinoma incidence by an exome-wide tumour mutational burden (e-TMB) or neoantigen load. Results The association of pack-years smoked with colorectal cancer incidence differed by e-TMB (P heterogeneity <0.001). Multivariable-adjusted HRs for e-TMB-high (≥10 mutations/megabase) tumours were 1.28 (95% CI 0.72 to 2.28) and 2.56 (95% CI 1.61 to 4.07) for 1–19 and ≥20 pack-years (vs 0 pack-years; P trend <0.001), respectively. In contrast, pack-years smoked were not associated with e-TMB-low tumour incidence (P trend =0.67). A similar differential association was observed for the neoantigen load (P heterogeneity =0.017). The differential association by e-TMB appeared consistent in the strata of CpG island methylator phenotype status, BRAF mutation or lymphocytic infiltrates. Conclusions Smoking is more strongly associated with the long-term incidence of colorectal carcinoma harbouring higher mutational and neoantigen loads. Our PCIBM-based evidence supports the immunosuppressive effect of smoking and the potential of smoking cessation in improving antitumour immunity for cancer prevention and treatment.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.015
Threshold uncertainty score0.693

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.028
GPT teacher head0.377
Teacher spread0.350 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations9
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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