Examining Benchmarks of Sexual Recidivism Rates for Short, Moderate, and Long-Term Follow-Up Periods: A Meta-Analysis of Canadian and American Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Measuring sexual recidivism involves both a behavioral and a temporal component. The behavioral component is sexually reoffending, generally measured using official sources. The temporal component is the follow-up period during which sexual recidivism is examined. Research has shown that if the length of the follow-up period is extended, rates of sexual recidivism increase. What is less clear is the functional form of this relationship. The present study examines this relationship through a meta-analysis of 468 sexual recidivism studies conducted in Canada and the United States and published since 1940. The weighted pooled mean recidivism rates ranged from 0.06 (95% CI [0.05, 0.09]; mean follow-up of less than 3 years) to 0.17 ([0.12, 0.23]; mean follow-up of 12 years or more). These benchmarks should be used with caution given the wide variability of recidivism rates observed in studies with similar mean follow-up periods. Such caution is especially needed in when communicating the risk of recidivism over longer-term follow-up periods given the limited number of such studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".