Remote early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections using a wearable-based algorithm: Results from the COVID-RED study, a prospective randomised single-blinded crossover trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Rapid and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially during the pre- or asymptomatic phase, could aid in reducing virus spread. Physiological parameters measured by wearable devices can be efficiently analysed to provide early detection of infections. The COVID-19 Remote Early Detection (COVID-RED) trial investigated the use of a wearable device (Ava bracelet) for improved early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections in real-time. TRIAL DESIGN: Prospective, single-blinded, two-period, two-sequence, randomised controlled crossover trial. METHODS: Subjects wore a medical device and synced it with a mobile application in which they also reported symptoms. Subjects in the experimental condition received real-time infection indications based on an algorithm using both wearable device and self-reported symptom data, while subjects in the control arm received indications based on daily symptom-reporting only. Subjects were asked to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 when receiving an app-generated alert, and additionally underwent periodic SARS-CoV-2 serology testing. The overall and early detection performance of both algorithms was evaluated and compared using metrics such as sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: A total of 17,825 subjects were randomised within the study. Subjects in the experimental condition received an alert significantly earlier than those in the control condition (median of 0 versus 7 days before a positive SARS-CoV-2 test). The experimental algorithm achieved high sensitivity (93.8-99.2%) but low specificity (0.8-4.2%) when detecting infections during a specified period, while the control algorithm achieved more moderate sensitivity (43.3-46.4%) and specificity (66.4-65.0%). When detecting infection on a given day, the experimental algorithm also achieved higher sensitivity compared to the control algorithm (45-52% versus 28-33%), but much lower specificity (38-50% versus 93-97%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the potential role of wearable devices in early detection of SARS-CoV-2. The experimental algorithm overestimated infections, but future iterations could finetune the algorithm to improve specificity and enable it to differentiate between respiratory illnesses. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register number NL9320.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".