Broad and Fine Scale Range Shifts of a Species at Risk Across North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Changes to the distributions of bird populations are becoming increasingly common as climate change and habitat loss continue to alter environments at a global scale. Grassland habitats have been disproportionately impacted by these stressors, leading to unprecedented declines of grassland bird species. Many grassland birds, such as the long‐billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), have wide ranges across North America, and thus may face different threats and pressures in different parts of their range. Community science databases, such as eBird provide large‐scale, long‐term temporal and spatial data, allowing for studies that examine changes in species distribution both regionally and range‐wide. Using 13 years of eBird data, we examined changes to the long‐billed curlew breeding range boundaries and centroid position in North America, and centroid position within eight Bird Conservation Regions (BCR; groupings of similar bird communities and habitats across North America) in which the species occurs. We found an overall northward range expansion of approximately 198 km. At the BCR scale, the Northern Rockies (BCR 10) also showed a northern centroid shift. The Prairie Potholes showed an eastern centroid shift, consistent with a declining population in the northeast Canadian portion of this BCR. Furthermore, we found a pattern of western centroid shifts in several BCRs, consistent with grassland loss in eastern North America. These results reinforce the importance of understanding both range‐wide and regional population dynamics to effectively manage at‐risk species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".