Integrating multi-covariate disentanglement with counterfactual analysis on synthetic data enables cell type discovery and counterfactual predictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Single-cell gene expression is influenced by diverse covariates such as genomics protocol, tissue origin, donor attributes, and microenvironment, which are challenging to disentangle. We present CellDISECT, a novel method combining disentangled representations and causal inference for multi-batch, multi-covariate single-cell data analysis. CellDISECT employs a mixture of expert variational autoencoders to learn covariate-specific and unsupervised latent spaces, enabling counterfactual predictions and biological discovery. Drawing inspiration from LLM training on synthetic data, CellDISECT generates synthetic counterfactuals during training and their quality is scored in the loss function. This semi-autoencoding of counterfactuals during training increases model performance in counterfactual predictions at test time. Benchmarking across datasets, CellDISECT outperformed existing methods in disentanglement, counterfactual in-silico prediction of responses to perturbations, and cell type discovery. CellDISECT predicted responses of cells to changing tissue microenvironments and identified a novel pre-natal megakaryocyte subpopulation with immune characteristics distinct from classical platelet-producing MKs, highlighting its unique capabilities in single-cell analysis to help identify novel subpopulations and reduce concerns of technical effects during integration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".