eLife Assessment: Reassessing the link between adiposity and head and neck cancer: a Mendelian randomization study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Adiposity has been associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Although body mass index (BMI) has been inversely associated with HNC risk among smokers, this is likely due to confounding. Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies could not fully discount causality between adiposity and HNC due to limited statistical power. Hence, we aimed to revisit this using the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of HNC available, which has more granular data on HNC subsites.We assessed the genetically predicted effects of BMI (N=806,834), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; N=697,734) and waist circumference (N=462,166) on the risk of HNC (N=12,264 cases and 19,259 controls) and its subsites (oral, laryngeal, hypopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers) using a two-sample MR framework. We used the inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR approach and multiple sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, weighted mode, MR-Egger, MR-PRESSO, and CAUSE approaches. We also used multivariable MR (MVMR) to explore the direct effects of the adiposity measures on HNC, while accounting for smoking behaviour, a well-known HNC risk factor.In univariable MR, higher genetically predicted BMI increased the risk of overall HNC (IVW OR=1.17 per 1 standard deviation [1-SD] higher BMI, 95% CI 1.02–1.34, p=0.03), with no heterogeneity across subsites (Q p=0.78). However, the effect was not consistent in sensitivity analyses. The IVW effect was attenuated when smoking was included in the MVMR model (OR accounting for comprehensive smoking index=0.96 per 1-SD higher BMI, 95% CI 0.80–1.15, p=0.64) and CAUSE indicated the IVW results could be biased by correlated pleiotropy. Furthermore, we did not find a link between genetically predicted WHR (IVW OR=1.05 per 1-SD higher WHR, 95% CI 0.89–1.24, p=0.53) or waist circumference and HNC risk (IVW OR=1.01 per 1-SD higher waist circumference, 95% CI 0.85–1.21, p=0.87).Our findings suggest that adiposity does not play a role in HNC risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.057 | 0.151 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".