Customer Churn Prediction with Machine Learning Methods In Telecommunication Industry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With the emergence of new competitors and increasing investments in telecommunication services, change often occurs and hence importance of marketing strategies and customer behavior prediction have become an important demand for companies. New regulations and technologies increase competition among mobile operators. Since acquiring a new customer is more expensive than acquiring active customers, companies seek solutions to reduce the churn rate. Therefore, telecommunications companies want to analyze the concept of the customer's desire to change service provider and take necessary measures to protect their existing customers. In this study, usage information, usage trends, subscription commitment, subscription age, ARPU and billing information, competitor familiarity, outgoing call information, number porting experience, etc. Loss estimation modeling is taken into account. Dataset includes 593 columns and 1826588 lines. Corporate mobile customers are analyzed by dividing into three subgroups as Single Line Mobile Customers, 2-5 Line Mobile Customers, and 6-15 Line Mobile Customers. In order to estimate customer loss, four different ML methods are used while creating loss prediction models. The model is developed by using 600 different variables and loss estimation. ROC curves and lift chart results for different corporate mobile customer groups are compared and the most suitable models are depicted.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".