Comparative Predictive Utility of MM-SES-CD and SES-CD for Week 52 Endoscopic Remission in the Ileum and Colon in Crohn’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's disease (SES-CD) and Modified Multiplier of the SES-CD (MM-SES-CD) are endoscopic scoring systems used to assess disease severity and response to therapy in CD. This study evaluates their utility at baseline in predicting endoscopic remission (ER) of the ileum and colon at week 52. METHODS: This post-hoc analysis of 4 clinical trials (CT-P13, UNITI, EXTEND, and SEAVUE) compared baseline scores and ER outcomes at week 52 using the SES-CD and MM-SES-CD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for each scoring system's ability to predict week 52 ER defined by various thresholds was compared. RESULTS: A total of 667 patients were included in this analysis. At baseline, the median SES-CD score was 8.5 (IQR 5.0-15.7), and the median MM-SES-CD score was 34.8 (IQR 27.5-50.0). MM-SES-CD demonstrated consistently higher AUC values compared to SES-CD across most endpoints in ileal and colonic disease involvement. Among 519 patients with any disease in the ileum, baseline MM-SES-CD demonstrated significantly better predictive accuracy than SES-CD for week 52 SES-CD < 3 [AUC 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.80) vs. 0.64 (95% CI: 0.59-0.70), P = .031]. Similar findings were observed for other definitions of ER. Among 552 participants with colonic disease involvement, baseline MM-SES-CD also demonstrated significantly greater accuracy for predicting week 52 SES-CD < 3 [AUC 0.78 (95% CI: 0.73-0.82) vs. 0.62 (95% CI: 0.57-0.66), P = .002], with similar findings across other definitions of ER assessed. Similar trends were observed across isolated ileal, ileocolonic, and isolated colonic disease. CONCLUSION: The baseline MM-SES-CD demonstrated superior predictive ability for week 52 ER compared to SES-CD across the ileum and colon. These findings support its utility in clinical trials and in routine practice for predicting long-term treatment response.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".