Temporal and Machine Learning-Based Principal Component and Clustering Analysis of VOCs and Their Role in Urban Air Pollution and Ozone Formation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study investigates the temporal dynamics, sources, and photochemical behaviour of key volatile organic compounds (VOCs) along Marylebone Road, London (1 January 2015–1 January 2023), a heavily trafficked urban area. Hourly measurements of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, ethene, propene, isoprene, propane, and ethyne, alongside ozone (O3) and meteorological data, were analysed using correlation matrices, regression, cross-correlation, diurnal/seasonal analysis, wind-sector analysis, PCA (Principal Component Analysis), and clustering. Strong inter-VOC correlations (e.g., benzene–ethylbenzene: r = 0.86, R2 = 0.75; ethene–propene: r = 0.68, R2 = 0.53) highlighted dominant vehicular sources. Diurnal peaks of benzene, toluene, and ethylbenzene aligned with rush hours, while O3 minima occurred in early mornings due to NO titration. VOCs peaked in winter under low mixing heights, whereas O3 was highest in summer. Wind-sector analysis revealed dominant VOC emissions from SSW (south-southwest)–WSW (west-southwest) directions; ethyne peaked from the E (east)/ENE (east-northeast). O3 concentrations were highest under SE (southeast)–SSE (south-southeast) flows. PCA showed 39.8% of variance linked to traffic-related VOCs (PC1) and 14.8% to biogenic/temperature-driven sources (PC2). K-means clustering (k = 3) identified three regimes: high VOCs/low O3 in stagnant, cool air; mixed conditions; and low VOCs/high O3 in warmer, aged air masses. Findings highlight complex VOC–O3 interactions and stress the need for source-specific mitigation strategies in urban air quality management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".