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Record W4411405286 · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.119729

Development and validation of a machine learning model to predict cognitive behavioral therapy outcome in obsessive-compulsive disorder using clinical and neuroimaging data

2025· article· en· W4411405286 on OpenAlexaff
Laurens A. van de Mortel, Willem B. Bruin, Pino Alonso, Sara Bertolín, Jamie D. Feusner, Joyce Guo, Kristen Hagen, Bjarne Hansen, Anders Lillevik Thorsen, Ignacio Martínez‐Zalacaín, José M. Menchón, Erika L. Nurmi, Joseph O’Neill, John Piacentini, Eva Real, Cinto Segalàs, Carles Soriano-Mas, Sophia I. Thomopoulos, Dan J. Stein, Paul M. Thompson, Odile A. van den Heuvel, Guido van Wingen

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Affective Disorders · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPsychology
TopicObsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders
Canadian institutionsCentre for Addiction and Mental Health
FundersEuropean Social FundNational Institute on AgingInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIAgència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de RecercaUniversitat de BarcelonaNational Institute of Mental HealthHelse Vest Regionalt HelseføretakSouth African Medical Research CouncilMedical Research CouncilHelse VestInternational OCD Foundation
KeywordsNeuroimagingObsessive compulsivePsychologyCognitionClinical psychologyMedicinePsychiatry

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND: Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is a first-line treatment for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), but clinical response is difficult to predict. In this study, we aimed to develop predictive models using clinical and neuroimaging data from the multicenter Enhancing Neuro-Imaging and Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA)-OCD consortium. METHODS: Baseline clinical and resting-state functional magnetic imaging (rs-fMRI) data from 159 adult patients aged 18-60 years (88 female) with OCD who received CBT at four treatment/neuroimaging sites were included. Fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, regional homogeneity and atlas-based functional connectivity were computed. Clinical CBT response and remission were predicted using support vector machine and random forest classifiers on clinical data only, rs-fMRI data only, and the combination of both clinical and rs-fMRI data. RESULTS: The use of only clinical data yielded an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.69 for predicting remission (p = 0.001). Lower baseline symptom severity, younger age, an absence of cleaning obsessions, unmedicated status, and higher education had the highest model impact in predicting remission. The best predictive performance using only rs-fMRI was obtained with regional homogeneity for remission (AUC = 0.59). Predicting response with rs-fMRI generally did not exceed chance level. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models based on clinical data may thus hold promise in predicting remission after CBT for OCD, but the predictive power of multicenter rs-fMRI data is limited.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.118
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.077
GPT teacher head0.424
Teacher spread0.347 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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