Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The problem of combining statistical evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of the k Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as being related to the problem of pooling k priors to determine a consensus prior, but the focus here is instead on combining a measure of statistical evidence to obtain a consensus measure of statistical evidence. The linear opinion pool is seen to have the most appropriate properties for this role. In particular, linear pooling preserves a consensus with respect to the evidence, and other rules do not. While linear pooling does not preserve prior independence, it is shown that it still behaves appropriately with respect to the expression of statistical evidence in such a context. For the more general problem of combining statistical evidence, where the priors as well as the sampling models may differ, Jeffrey conditionalization plays a key role.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.023 | 0.080 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.014 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".