The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
As global warming persistently alters and rapidly reshapes landscapes and habitats, conventional species distribution models relying solely on maintaining static conditions within the current climate are likely to falter, particularly at the genus level. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change will differentially affect ecological niches of the same genus species with various latitudinal positioning and local topography, and the high-latitude species may experience greater niche contraction than low-latitude species, and that mountainous regions with high elevational variability may serve as critical climate refugia. Herein, we simulate niche alterations and integrate an ensemble model (EM) strategy, taking into account species dispersal limitations factors (topography, soil, and ultraviolet), to construct a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model for assessing the future vulnerability of the Betula genus, most of which are timber species in China. Our findings reveal that the niche spatial (geographic distribution) of most species (62%) within the Betula genus will undergo a gradual decline under climate change, supporting our hypothesis of latitudinal differentiation in climate vulnerability. Intriguingly, the projected high-latitude niche reduction within the genus cannot be counterbalanced by the anticipated niche expansion of closely related species in low-latitude regions, even considering the evident latitudinal gradient distribution of species. Nonetheless, the niche spatial of six Betula species in southwestern China remains stable or expands under warming scenarios, strongly supporting our secondary hypothesis about topographic buffering effects, which probably means the unique topography (i.e., the largest elevation difference) of this region may serve as a sanctuary for preserving Betula genetic diversity. Our results underscore the uncertain nature of pre-existing niche systems at the genus level under climate change, emphasizing the need for diligent resource management and conservation planning for vulnerable timber species.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it