Chlorinated very short-lived substances offset the long-term reduction of inorganic stratospheric chlorine
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Over the past few decades, a reduction in chlorinated long-lived ozone-depleting substance emissions due to the regulations imposed by the Montreal Protocol has led to a global decrease in stratospheric chlorine. At the same time, emissions of chlorinated Very Short-Lived Substances, which are unregulated, have increased. Here we show that observed changes of inorganic stratospheric chlorine are inconsistent with changes in the tropospheric abundances of long-lived ozone-depleting substances. Satellite observations of stratospheric chlorine species from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment—Fourier Transform Spectrometer during 2004–2020 reveal that the observed decrease in inorganic stratospheric chlorine is 25%–30% smaller than expected based on trends of long-lived ozone-depleting substances alone. At mid-latitudes in the lower stratosphere, this can be explained by the chlorinated Very Short-Lived Substances increase, which offsets the long-term reduction of stratospheric chlorine by up to 30%. Emissions of chlorinated very short-lived substances have increased since 1999, offsetting reductions in chlorinated long-lived ozone-depleting substances imposed by the Montreal Protocol, according to satellite observations of stratospheric chlorine species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".