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Record W4411541644 · doi:10.1386/jciaw_00136_1

Can Iraq escape state failure?

2025· article· en· W4411541644 on OpenAlexaffabout
Tareq Y. Ismael

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Contemporary Iraq & the Arab World · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCultural, Psychoanalytic, and Sociopolitical Reflections
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSectarianismState (computer science)Political sciencePublic administrationLanguage changeEthnic groupDemocracyPublic relationsLawPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This research proposal, submitted by Tareq Ismael to the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada shortly before his death in October 2024, describes a research agenda intended to assess the prospects for Iraq avoiding the failure of its democratic institutions. The plan focuses on the duality of decision-making between the formal, public constitutional institutions and informal channels of communication, both dominated by leaders of the country’s ethnic and sectional religious communities. Through interviews with current and former Iraqi elites and knowledgeable informants and by analysing the dynamics of decision-making in five key policy sectors understood to be prone to sectarianism and corruption, the research was directed towards determining whether Iraq is headed towards failure of its state institutions.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.023
Threshold uncertainty score0.046

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0080.014
Scholarly communication0.0080.007
Open science0.0010.004
Research integrity0.0040.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.037
GPT teacher head0.347
Teacher spread0.311 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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