Thermokarst Lagoons: Distribution, Classification and Dynamics in Permafrost‐to‐Marine Transitions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT The transition of permafrost landscapes to marine environments, driven by climate change, plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Thermokarst lagoons, formed along permafrost coasts when thermokarst lakes get connected to the sea, are key features in this transition. Using remote sensing imagery, we manually mapped and classified 520 thermokarst lagoons along the coastline of five Arctic shelf seas (Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, Alaskan Beaufort and Canadian Beaufort seas) between the Taymyr and Tuktoyaktuk peninsulas, and most were located along the Canadian Beaufort Sea. These lagoons cover a total area of 3457 km 2 , with strong regional variations in both size and distribution. Based on their sea connectivity, we categorised the lagoons into five classes, with 55% in early transition stages (very low to low connected). From 2000 to 2021, lagoon area increased in all regions, with the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast showing the most growth (+1.34%). Smaller and isolated lagoons expanded faster than those in lagoon systems or deltas. Our analysis links thermokarst lagoon distribution to coastal erosion, land cover, ground ice and organic carbon, showing that most lagoons are located in areas of thermokarst lake coverage and high coastal erosion. This unique pan‐Arctic dataset serves as a foundation for understanding thermokarst lagoon dynamics and their role in the rapidly changing Arctic environment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".