Downward Mobility and Far-Right Party Support: Broad Evidence
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Much debate has centered on the relative effects of economic and cultural factors on support for far-right parties. Recent work, however, has proposed a synthesis focused on the role of social status , a concept capturing a combination of economic position and social esteem. While previous studies have adduced suggestive evidence that status loss shapes far-right support, this paper presents the broadest empirical assessment of the proposition to date. Focusing on long-term status change, operationalized as intergenerational occupational mobility, we find a strong relationship between mobility and support for the far right across 11 European countries. Moreover, adopting a modeling approach that addresses confounding between status levels and status change, we demonstrate an asymmetry: while downward mobility predicts increased far-right voting, upward mobility has little effect. The findings suggest that long-run economic forces that have depressed the occupational prospects of native-born workers contribute to the far right’s rise.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it