P125 International incidence trends for melanoma in children, teenagers and young adults: a systematic review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Globally the incidence rates of melanoma have been increasing; however, knowledge of the incidence in children, teenagers and young adults (CTYA) is limited due to the low prevalence. Several risk factors for melanoma exist such as ultraviolet exposure, sex, skin type and genetic predisposition. However, the impacts of these risk factors vary by genetics, age and episodes of severe sunburn, and are more relevant to younger individuals. For this study we undertook a systematic review to investigate the incidence trends and patient characteristics of melanoma in patients aged < 25 years. Currently, there is a gap in the literature for systematic reviews exploring trends in melanoma in CTYA. On 18 October 2024, a search was completed using CINAHL, EBSCO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science, where 236 papers were identified from 1980 to 2024. Studies were excluded with data recorded prior to 1980 along with any that solely focused on basal or squamous cell carcinomas. The Newcastle–Ottawa Scale was used to assess the risk of bias, with results graded as ‘good’, ‘fair’ or ‘poor’ based on Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality standards. Thirty-three studies were included from 16 countries across 6 continents, with 1 study reporting global burden of disease using a dataset from 204 countries. Through the decades, the general trends of melanoma varied depending on the years and geographical location. Most countries observed a female predominance in CTYA with melanoma. This was recorded in 12 out of 19 papers (63%). In the USA, from seven studies, all cases were observed in those of a White non-Hispanic background. More cases were recorded as age increased, even in patients aged ≤ 12 years. Over various time periods, studies reported a general decrease in CTYA with melanoma from the years of 2000 to 2010 in North America and Australasia. However, some studies in Europe noted an increase in melanoma, including countries such as Finland and Denmark. Trends in Iran vary as there was a decrease from 2004 to 2012, but this was then followed by an increase up until 2019. International trends varied with no unifying trend; however, there was evidence to suggest reducing trends in countries where incidence rates were higher (Australia and the USA). A greater understanding of trends by ethnicity, sun safety behaviour and the impact of public health campaigns is needed to better understand the trends, and a greater representation of developing countries is needed to understand the global burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.026 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.016 | 0.020 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".