Spatial sample weighted machine learning for multitemporal land cover change modeling with imbalanced datasets
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the widespread use of machine learning (ML) models for geospatial applications, adaptations to imbalanced multitemporal land cover (LC) datasets remain underexplored. For over two decades, studies have predominantly trained ML models on a single interval of LC data to model changes, with detriments of imbalanced training datasets managed through manual manipulations. Therefore, this study proposes and implements an ML-spatial sample weighting (ML-SSW) approach to leverage available multitemporal LC data while adjusting sample influence to reflect recency of change occurrence and class-level spatial pattern measures to enable data-driven LC change modeling. Random Forest (RF), Neural Network (NN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGB) models are trained under the ML-SSW strategy on three study areas located in British Columbia, Canada. The RF-SSW, NN-SSW, and XGB-SSW models forecasted more realistic changes across multiple timesteps with fewer errors than baseline configurations. The presented methodology provides a step toward establishing spatialized cost-sensitive learning strategies and extending classical ML models to multitemporal LC datasets.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it