Interferon Gamma and Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha Are Inflammatory Biomarkers for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)—including heart attacks and strokes—are the leading cause of death in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD), yet biomarker research for MACE prediction in PAD patients remains limited. Inflammatory proteins play a key role in the progression of atherosclerosis and may serve as useful prognostic indicators for systemic cardiovascular risk in PAD. The objective of this study was to evaluate a broad panel of circulating inflammatory proteins to identify those independently associated with 2-year MACE in patients with PAD. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 465 patients with PAD. Plasma concentrations of 15 inflammatory proteins were measured at baseline using validated immunoassays. Patients were followed over a two-year period for the development of MACE, defined as a composite endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or mortality. Protein levels were compared between patients with and without MACE using the Mann–Whitney U test. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the independent association of each protein with MACE after adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical variables, including existing coronary and cerebrovascular disease. To validate the findings, a random forest machine learning model was developed to assess the relative importance of each protein for predicting 2-year MACE. Results: The mean age of the cohort was 71 years (SD 10), and 145 participants (31.1%) were female. Over the two-year follow-up, 84 patients (18.1%) experienced MACE. Six proteins were significantly elevated in PAD patients who developed MACE: interferon gamma (IFN-γ; 42.55 [SD 15.11] vs. 33.85 [SD 12.46] pg/mL, p < 0.001), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α; 9.00 [SD 5.00] vs. 4.65 [SD 4.29] pg/mL, p < 0.001), chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 9 (CXCL9; 75.99 [SD 65.14] vs. 5.38 [SD 64.18] pg/mL, p = 0.002), macrophage inflammatory protein-1 beta (MIP-1β; 20.88 [SD 18.10] vs. 15.67 [SD 16.93] pg/mL, p = 0.009), MIP-1δ (25.29 [SD 4.22] vs. 17.98 [SD 4.01] pg/mL, p = 0.026), and interleukin-6 (IL-6; 12.50 [SD 40.00] vs. 6.72 [SD 38.98] pg/mL, p = 0.035). After adjusting for all baseline covariates, only two proteins—TNF-α (adjusted HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.28–2.33, p = 0.001) and IFN-γ (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.12–2.29, p = 0.033)—remained significantly and independently associated with 2-year MACE. These findings were corroborated by the random forest model, where TNF-α and IFN-γ received the highest importance scores for predicting 2-year MACE: (TNF-α: 0.15 [95% CI 0.13–0.18], p = 0.002; IFN-γ: 0.19 [95% CI 0.17–0.21], p = 0.001). Conclusions: From a panel of 15 proteins, TNF-α and IFN-γ emerged as inflammatory biomarkers associated with 2-year MACE in PAD patients. Their measurement may aid in cardiovascular risk stratification, helping to identify high-risk individuals who could benefit from early multidisciplinary referrals to cardiology, neurology, and/or vascular medicine specialists to provide intensified medical therapy. Incorporating these biomarkers into PAD management may improve systemic cardiovascular outcomes through more personalized and targeted treatment approaches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".