Heat Wave Trends in Canadian Regions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite their widespread impacts, there has been limited work to quantify how heat waves have changed in Canada. With no standard definition of a heat wave, we consider two different types of heat waves: climatological heat waves defined by the exceedance of a climatological percentile threshold and heat-warning heat waves which are based on the absolute threshold criteria for issuing heat warnings in Canada. These two heat waves represent different types of events with different primary impacts. We find the type of heat wave strongly influences the number of heat waves each year and the regional patterns of where such events are more prevalent. After the evaluation of climatologies, considering station observations and spatially complete gridded datasets, trends in annual metrics of heat waves were calculated for Canadian regions. Climatological heat waves increased in frequency, duration, and cumulative intensity between 1961 and 2020 across the country and in most regions. Heat-warning heat waves have increased over Northern and Atlantic Canada.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".