Cosmic ray–driven electron-induced reaction theory quantifies spatiotemporal variations in lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cosmic rays (CRs) play an important role in affecting planetary and interstellar climate and environment. Here, we apply the CR-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion to obtain a quantitative understanding of spatiotemporal variations in Earth's lower-stratospheric ozone (LSO) and temperature, which provide fingerprints for the mechanisms of ozone depletion and examine the impact of nonhalogen greenhouse gases on the ozone layer. We first show from observations that both LSO and temperature display pronounced 11-y cyclic variations over Antarctica and mid-latitudes, while weak (no apparent) cyclic variations over the tropics. These observations are consistent with the prediction by the CRE theory. Second, our no-parameter CRE theoretical calculations give the vertical profile of ozone loss in perfect agreement with observations at the Antarctic Syowa station and reproduce well the time-series variations of both LSO and temperature in the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical regions, including the previously reported large ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere over the tropics. The results also demonstrate that both LSO and temperature are controlled by CRs and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) only. Moreover, CRE calculations exhibit complex phenomena in future trends of LSO and temperature, which are strongly affected by the future trend of CR fluxes. The latter might even lead to almost no recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica and no returning to the 1980 level over the tropics by 2100. This study greatly improves quantitative understanding of ozone depletion and climate in the global lower stratosphere and offers predictions on future trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".