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Record W4412033536 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2025-3000

Increasing emissions of HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 may be due to leakage during HFC-125 production

2025· preprint· en· W4412033536 on OpenAlex
Luke M. Western, Stephen Bourguet, Molly Crotwell, Lei Hu, Paul B. Krummel, Hélène De Longueville, Alistair J. Manning, Jens Mühle, Dominique Rust, Isaac Vimont, Martin K. Vollmer, Minde An, Jgor Arduini, Andreas Engel, Paul J. Fraser, Anita L. Ganesan, Christina M. Harth, Chris Lunder, Michela Maione, S. A. Montzka, David Alexander Nance, Simon O’Doherty, Sunyoung Park, Stefan Reimann, Peter K. Salameh, Roland Schmidt, Kieran Stanley, Thomas Wagenhäuser, Dickon Young, Matthew Rigby, Ronald G. Prinn, Ray F. Weiss

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicCyclone Separators and Fluid Dynamics
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNOAA ResearchBundesamt für UmweltNatural Environment Research CouncilGoddard Space Flight CenterHORIZON EUROPE Framework ProgrammeBureau of Meteorology, Australian GovernmentAustralian Antarctic DivisionMinistry of Science and ICT, South KoreaWater Information Research and Development AllianceMiljødirektoratetBundesbehörden der Schweizerischen EidgenossenschaftNuclear Safety and Security CommissionMet OfficeNational Research FoundationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationUniversity of BristolNational Research Foundation of KoreaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationU.S. Department of CommerceIntegrated Carbon Observation SystemNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationDepartment for Energy Security and Net Zero
KeywordsLeakage (economics)Production (economics)Carbon leakageEnvironmental scienceGreenhouse gasEconomicsEmissions tradingMicroeconomicsGeologyKeynesian economicsOceanography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract. Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone-depleting substances whose production and consumption have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in non-Article 5 (mainly developed) countries and are currently being phased out in the rest of the world. Here, we focus on two HCFCs, HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, whose emissions are not decreasing globally in line with their phase out. We present the first measurement-derived estimates of global HCFC-123 emissions (1993–2023) and updated HCFC-124 emissions for 1978–2023. Around 5 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-123 and 3 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-124 were emitted in 2023. Both HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 are intermediates in the production of HFC-125, a non-ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) that has replaced ozone-depleting substances in many applications. We show that it is possible that the observed global increase in HCFC-124 emissions could be entirely due to leakage from the production of HFC-125, provided that its leakage rate is around 1 % by mass of HFC-125 production. Global emissions of HCFC-123 have not decreased despite its phase-out of production under the Montreal Protocol, and its use in HFC-125 production may be a contributing factor to this. Emissions of HCFC-124 from western Europe, the USA and East Asia have not increased since 2015 and cannot explain the increase in the derived global emissions of HCFC-124. These findings add to the growing evidence that emissions of some ozone-depleting substances are increasing due to leakage and improper destruction during fluorochemical production.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Bench or experimental · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.134
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.238
Teacher spread0.229 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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