Evaluation of the Effect of Climate Change in Nova Scotia with Approach of Forecasting Evapotranspiration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Climate change significantly threatens agriculture globally, potentially impacting crop yields, water availability, and food security. Climate change has caused increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation because of Greenhouse Gas emissions. Rising temperatures can lead to increasing evapotranspiration, heat stress in crops, reducing yields, and altering plant development. Warmer conditions may also favor the spread of pests and diseases. Shifts in rainfall patterns, including more frequent droughts and floods, can disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, damage crops, and erode soil. To cope with the changing climate, farmers must adopt new farming practices, such as drought-resistant crops, improved irrigation systems, and climate-smart agriculture techniques. To combat and adapt to climate change, it is necessary to be aware of the quantitative and qualitative changes in meteorological parameters. This study investigates the impacts of climate change in Nova Scotia, Canada, using historical climate data (2000–2020) from the Kentville weather station and future projections (2021–2040) simulated with the LARS-WG V8 software and the CanESM5 model. The Dumarten climate coefficient identified the study area as a very humid region, with a coefficient value of 56.2 during the base period. The model evaluation showed high accuracy in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures (R² = 0.95 and 0.93, respectively) and moderate accuracy for total precipitation (R² = 0.85). Future climate projections revealed significant changes, including a warming trend with fewer extreme cold events, higher average temperatures, and more frequent heat extremes. Total precipitation showed reduced maximum values, suggesting less intense rainfall events, while mean and minimum precipitation levels remained stable. Evapotranspiration (ETp) projections indicated an upward trend with increased variability, pointing to heightened risks of water stress and agricultural challenges. These findings highlight the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate climate risks in Nova Scotia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".