Seasonal phenology of <i>Empoasca fabae</i> (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in Québec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is reshaping insect population dynamics in North America, notably impacting the migratory pest Empoasca fabae (Harris) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae). While its phenology is well studied in the United States, knowledge gaps exist regarding its dynamics in Eastern Canada, one of its northernmost migration areas. Our study integrates degree-day models, CLIMEX ecological niche modeling, and field-collected data from Québec to assess E. fabae seasonal phenology and monthly climatic suitability. Our results indicate that E. fabae completes one to two generations in Québec, with earlier emergence and higher generational potential in warmer southeastern regions compared to cooler northeastern regions. CLIMEX modeling showed that suitable climatic conditions for E. fabae growth begin in April, peak from May to September, and decline by November. First adult captures occurred from late May to early June, with population peaks in June-July and a decrease by September. Observed adult peaks occurred earlier than predicted by degree-day models, suggesting that additional environmental factors, such as wind patterns and host plant availability, influence early-season population dynamics. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of E. fabae phenology in Québec and highlights the importance of incorporating regional climate to predict population trends. Further research on diapause onset, late-season persistence, and migration patterns is needed to refine predictive models and inform pest management strategies in Québec. Understanding these factors will be essential in mitigating potential economic impacts amid ongoing climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".