Moments of primes in progressions to a large modulus
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Assuming a uniform q -variant of the prime k -tuple conjecture, we compute moments of the number of primes in arithmetic progressions to a large modulus q as the residue classes vary. Consequently, depending on the size of <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <m:mrow> <m:mi>φ</m:mi> <m:mo></m:mo> <m:mrow> <m:mo stretchy="false">(</m:mo> <m:mi>q</m:mi> <m:mo stretchy="false">)</m:mo> </m:mrow> </m:mrow> </m:math> {\varphi(q)} , the prime count follows either a Gaussian or a Poisson distribution. In particular, the least prime in progressions follows an exponential distribution, with some unexpected discrepancies observed for smooth moduli.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
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Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
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