Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract As demonstrated by the case of flooding around the National Mall, Washington, DC, those engaged in policymaking rarely confront a shared, single uncertainty in their differing capacities and deliberations. The range of these uncertainties is identified by asking three sets of questions. (1) Where is the uncertainty situated? This determines which people in what roles in the policy process have how much ability, if any, to manipulate the causes of uncertainty. (2) How much uncertainty is there? Are there clear indicators about outcomes and future conditions because there is low uncertainty or not because there is high uncertainty? (3) What is the nature of the uncertainty? Is it because of rectifiable imperfections in knowledge or because of inherent variability that cannot be reduced? Different paths for addressing uncertainties result from the answers to these questions. The uncertainties identified are associated with three drivers of potential harm from flooding: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is constructive to understand these drivers and their associated uncertainties because while flooding is the most prevalent natural disaster worldwide, it is also the one for which precautionary measures are most effective and for which ameliorative actions have the greatest potential.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".