Bridging spatiotemporal wildfire prediction and decision modeling using transformer networks and fuzzy inference systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wildfires present a growing threat to ecosystems, human settlements, and climate stability, necessitating accurate and interpreted prediction systems. Existing AI-based models often prioritize performance over explainability, limiting their utility in real-time decision-making contexts. Current wildfire forecasting models struggle to incorporate uncertainty and offer transparent response strategies. Moreover, many models fail to integrate domain knowledge in a way that supports actionable interventions. This study utilizes the Canadian Fire Spread Dataset, augmented with Sentinel, ERA5, and SRTM data, encompassing vegetation, meteorological, and topographic variables. The suggested system uses a Transformer-based model to predict fires over time and space, along with a Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS) to create rules for responding to those predictions. This integration allows for both high accuracy and interpretability in decision-making under uncertain environmental conditions. The novelty lies in the use of symbolic fuzzy reasoning layered onto a deep attention-based architecture. Performance was evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC. The model achieved an F1-score of 92.9 % and accuracy of 94.8 %, significantly outperforming baseline and deep learning alternatives. • Integrates deep learning with fuzzy logic for both accurate forecasting and interpretable response planning. • Enables uncertainty-aware reasoning by translating predictions into actionable fire management rules. • Demonstrates superior performance across diverse environmental datasets using multi-source satellite and climate inputs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".