Day 3 Oxford criteria predict steroid non-response for acute severe ulcerative colitis in the post biologic era
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Outcomes of patients admitted with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) in the post biologic era are under explored, as well as the ability of scoring indices to predict early steroid non-response. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included adults hospitalized with ASUC (2010-2022) at London Health Sciences Centre, Canada. Steroid response, need for rescue therapy, colectomy during index hospitalization, and colectomy and hospitalization at 3- and 12-months following discharge was assessed. Logistic regression identified predictors of steroid non-response, defined as need for rescue therapy or colectomy during hospitalization. RESULTS: Of 261 adults hospitalized with ASUC (male: 51.7%, mean age: 40.6 years), 71.2% had extensive colitis. After intravenous corticosteroid therapy during index admission, 55.7% (n = 147) had a response, 37.9% (n = 99) received rescue therapy (infliximab: 98, tofacitinib: 1, and cyclosporine: 0), and 8% (21/261) underwent colectomy. Additionally, 11.6% (28/240) of patients discharged from hospital underwent colectomy within the first 12 months (8.3% at 3-months and 3.3% between 3 and 12 months). There was no difference between steroid responders and non-responders for colectomy (11% vs 12.6%) or hospitalization (33.5% vs 32.6%) at 12 months. The overall cumulative probabilities of colectomy for the entire cohort at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 13.5%, 16.1%, and 17.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, Day 3 Oxford criteria was the only factor found to be statistically significant in predicting steroid non-response (odds ratio 4.70, 95%CI [1.06-20.80]). CONCLUSIONS: Day 3 Oxford criteria was an independent predictor of steroid non-response. The risk of colectomy remains substantial after discharge despite low in-hospital colectomy rates following an episode of ASUC. Initial steroid response did not affect long-term colectomy rate at 12 months.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".