Exploring the Dynamic Link Between Crude Oil and Islamic Stock Returns: A BRIC Perspective During the GFC
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between crude oil returns (CRT) and Islamic stock returns (ISR) in BRIC countries during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), employing wavelet-based comovement analysis and regression models that incorporate both contemporaneous and lagged CRT across 40 cases. The wavelet analysis reveals strong long-term comovement at low frequencies between ISR and CRT during the GFC. Contemporaneous regressions show that increases (decreases) in CRT align with corresponding movements in ISR. Lagged regressions indicate that CRT can predict ISR up to one week ahead for Brazil, Russia, and China, and up to two weeks for India, although the predictive strength weakens beyond this window. These findings challenge the perception that Islamic stocks were immune to the GFC, showing they were affected by global oil market dynamics, albeit with varying degrees of resilience across countries and time horizons.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".