Predicting per capita expenditure using satellite imagery and transfer learning: A case study of east Java province, Indonesia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Collecting poverty data through the National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) demands significant time, costs, and human resources. To enable more efficient policy-making, predicting the poverty rate before the release of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data is essential. This research compares day and night satellite images to predict per capita expenditure in East Java, Indonesia, which has the highest number of poor people. The satellite images are processed using a transfer learning approach that employs a pretrained Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model with VGG-16 architecture as a feature extractor. These extracted features are then used as independent variables to predict East Java's per capita expenditure using Support Vector Regression (SVR) with RBF and polynomial kernels. The findings indicate that night images are more reliable than day images, with the best model being a combination of transfer learning and the SVR polynomial kernel using night images. The prediction mapping aligns well with the unmodeled night image, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in predicting per capita expenditure.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".