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Record W4412578908 · doi:10.1080/17509653.2025.2536637

Machine learning predictions of composite steel price indices

2025· article· en· W4412578908 on OpenAlex
Bingzi Jin, Xiaojie Xu

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsAdvanced Micro Devices (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsComposite numberComputer scienceEconometricsArtificial intelligenceMachine learningMathematicsAlgorithm

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Predictions about commodities prices have historically been highly esteemed by both the government and investors. This study looks at the challenge of daily composite steel price index forecasting in the Chinese market from 15 June 2011, to 15 April 2021. The literature has not given enough attention to anticipating this important commodity price indicator. Gaussian process regressions are used to validate our results after employing cross-validation and Bayesian optimizations to train our models. With an out-of-sample relative root mean square error of 0.5694%, the generated models correctly forecasted the price indices between 26 April 2019, and 15 April 2021. The models generated can be used for research and decision-making by investors and policymakers. Using reference data on the price trends indicated by these models, the forecasting findings might be useful in building comparable commodity price indices.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.757
Threshold uncertainty score0.310

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.211
Teacher spread0.204 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it