Interactions between Short-Wave Troughs and Shore-Parallel Lake-Effect Bands over Lake Ontario
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Great Lakes region forecasting experience indicates that some of the most intense winter precipitation events occur when an upper-level short-wave trough approaches ongoing lake-effect convection. A 10 cold-season climatology of short-wave trough passages over Lake Ontario was formed and subsequently compared with radar imagery to identify interaction events. Of 184 events, nearly half featured precipitation in shore-parallel bands (SPBs) common to Lake Ontario in westerly winds. These events can be particularly challenging to forecast due to locally intense precipitation and extreme horizontal precipitation gradients. To better understand how SPBs respond to short-wave trough passages, changes in the inland extent, meridional location, and intensity of precipitation were systematically analyzed. Inland extent generally increased when a short-wave trough axis was located over western Lake Ontario. The majority of SPBs moved southward throughout a trough passage. During an intense SPB event on 7 January 2014, the depth of a lake-induced mixed layer oscillated over 100 hPa during a short-wave trough passage; a response to midlevel vertical motion associated with curvature vorticity advection by the thermal wind. When the precipitating region is subject to ascent associated with an upshear short-wave trough, differential cooling between the lake-induced mixed layer and the relatively dry upper troposphere weakens the capping inversion. This allows the mixed layer to grow vertically, increasing precipitation rates. As the short-wave trough moves downshear, the capping inversion strengthens, descends, and precipitation is suppressed. In a semiobjective analysis of precipitation intensity, this was the typical response of an SPB to a short-wave trough passage.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it