The legacy of the Northern Irish ‘Troubles’ and disability rolls
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Disability benefit recipiency rates have been persistently higher in Northern Ireland (NI) than the rest of the UK for decades. Receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA), a social security payment designed to cover the additional costs of living with a disability, was proportionally around twice as high in NI compared to the rest of the UK at its 2016 peak. This paper uses data from the Northern Ireland Cohort of Longitudinal Ageing survey to examine whether one potential contributory factor, exposure to the conflict, can explain variations in DLA receipt among older working-age people in Northern Ireland. Conflict-related fatality rates at the area level are used to account for potential endogeneity in reporting past exposure to trauma. While most of the NI population in the age bracket examined (50-64 years) were exposed to the conflict in some way, more intense exposure to the conflict is found to increase the likelihood of DLA receipt by 21 percentage points. We also find a substantial impact on mental ill health. This research has significant policy ramifications both in NI but also across the UK at a time of particular interest in disability benefit receipt as well as contributing to the wider post-conflict literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".