The role of Antarctic sea ice in the Earth system: Perspectives informed by 130,000 years of sea ice records
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Antarctic sea-ice cover reached historically low levels in 2023, consistent with the simulated decrease in sea-ice extent in response to anthropogenic warming. Antarctic sea ice is closely linked to multiple components of the Earth system, thus its demise could precipitate widespread, cascading changes across the cryosphere, atmosphere, and ocean. However, the nature and strength of these interconnections are poorly understood, and they are often inadequately represented in models. In this review paper we use modern observations, models and paleoclimate archives covering the last glacial cycle to gain insights into how reductions in sea ice may affect other components of the Earth system. We review how Antarctic sea ice interacts with ocean and atmosphere circulation, ice sheets and ice shelves, marine productivity, and the carbon cycle over the last glacial cycle, for which we have the most robust sea-ice reconstructions. The review finds strong evidence from theory and models for impacts of Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system. Paleo-proxy reconstructions provide examples where changes in sea ice co-occur with changes in the carbon cycle, marine productivity, and ocean circulation. However, challenges remain in isolating the impact of sea ice in a highly interconnected system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".