Future Climate‐Driven Ecological Disruption in a Network of Marine Protected Areas on Canada's East Coast
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Climate‐induced species range shifts alter ecological assemblages, yet little is known of the consequences for ecosystem functioning. We combine species distribution model (SDM) projections with species traits to develop a spatially explicit risk index for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. The “Climate Ecological Disruption Index” (CEDI) is an easy‐to‐interpret metric that builds on existing approaches to quantifying functional diversity, providing a novel foundation for evaluating functional consequences of climate‐induced species range shifts and identifying areas at risk. We applied CEDI to a marine protected area network on Canada's east coast, where it indicated high potential for ecological disruption, with a maximum value of 0.35 (more than one‐third turnover in functional groups). Our approach is generalizable, aiding spatial conservation planning by translating projected species range shifts from SDMs into potential ecological disruption, thereby supporting the integration of climate resilience into management strategies and informing conservation planning efforts in a warming world.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".