Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Understanding the evolution of Arctic sea-ice is crucial due to its climatic and socio-economic impacts. Usual descriptors (e.g., sea-ice extent, sea-ice age, and ice-free duration) quantify changes but do not account for the full seasonal cycle. Here, using satellite observations of sea-ice concentration over 1979–2023, we perform a k-means clustering of the Arctic sea-ice seasonal cycle, initializing with equal quantile separation and using Mahalanobis distance. We identify four optimal seasonal cycle clusters: open-ocean (no ice year-round), permanent sea-ice (full coverage with a minimum of 70 % sea-ice concentration), and two clusters showing ice-free conditions, namely partial and full winter freezing. The latter has larger sea-ice concentration in winter, more abrupt melting and freezing periods, and a shorter ice-free season than the former. The probability of belonging to the open-ocean cluster increased by 1.6 % per decade mostly due to cluster spatial expansion on the Eurasian side. The permanent sea-ice decreased by 1.5 % per decade with a likelihood reduction in the Canadian side. The partial and full winter freezing clusters do not exhibit any trend but spatial shifts occur. We further diagnose cluster transitions and subsequently infer regions of stabilization and destabilization. The East Siberian and Laptev seas are destabilizing (losing their typical permanent sea-ice seasonal cycle) while the Kara and Chukchi seas have stabilized (experiencing a new typical seasonal cycle, corresponding to the partial winter-freezing cluster). This work provides a new way to describe Arctic regional changes using a statistical framework based on physical behaviours of sea-ice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.022 | 0.021 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.163 | 0.125 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".