A Novel Deep Learning Model for Predicting Colorectal Anastomotic Leakage: A Pioneer Multicenter Transatlantic Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Colorectal anastomotic leak (CAL) is one of the most severe postoperative complications in colorectal surgery, impacting patient morbidity and mortality. Current risk assessment methods rely on clinical and intraoperative factors, but no real-time predictive tool exists. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence model based on intraoperative laparoscopic recording of the anastomosis for CAL prediction. Methods: A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained with annotated frames from colorectal surgery videos across three international high-volume centers (Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa, Hospital das Clínicas de Ribeirão Preto, and Royal Liverpool University Hospital). The dataset included a total of 5356 frames from 26 patients, 2007 with CAL and 3349 showing normal anastomosis. Four CNN architectures (EfficientNetB0, EfficientNetB7, ResNet50, and MobileNetV2) were tested. The models’ performance was evaluated using their sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Heatmaps were generated to identify key image regions influencing predictions. Results: The best-performing model achieved an accuracy of 99.6%, AUROC of 99.6%, sensitivity of 99.2%, specificity of 100.0%, PPV of 100.0%, and NPV of 98.9%. The model reliably identified CAL-positive frames and provided visual explanations through heatmaps. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first AI model developed to predict CAL using intraoperative video analysis. Its accuracy suggests the potential to redefine surgical decision-making by providing real-time risk assessment. Further refinement with a larger dataset and diverse surgical techniques could enable intraoperative interventions to prevent CAL before it occurs, marking a paradigm shift in colorectal surgery.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".