Quantifying the Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Combustion-based CO2 Emissions in Canada and the U.S.

Mitigation of CO2 emissions, primarily aimed at addressing climate change, frequently generates ancillary public health benefits through concurrent reductions in co-emitted air pollutants such as PM2.5. These pollutants are key contributors to ambient air pollution and are associated with adverse health outcomes including premature mortality. Climate mitigation strategies, such as the decarbonization of the power and transportation sectors, can thus yield immediate, localized improvements in air quality. Quantifying the health co-benefits of CO2 reductions requires integrating emissions data, atmospheric modeling, epidemiological evidence, and economic valuation frameworks. These co-benefits improve climate policy cost-effectiveness and support integrated strategies that address both emissions and public health. Understanding how emissions from various sources affect societal outcomes across different regions requires robust analytical tools. Sensitivity analysis plays a critical role in linking emissions to health and economic outcomes and can inform targeted policy interventions. This thesis focuses on quantifying the societal co-benefits of reducing CO2 emissions using a twofold methodology. It utilizes adjoint sensitivity analysis, integrating detailed demographic, epidemiological, and economic data within a full-complexity atmospheric modeling framework. Specifically, the adjoint-enabled version of the U.S. Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ-ADJ) is used to determine the location-specific contributions of emissions to health-related societal burdens. By integrating these spatially resolved health impact sensitivities with sector- and region-specific co-pollutant intensities, the analysis links CO2 emission reductions to health outcomes and calculates the co-benefits. The analysis is conducted for both the U.S. and Canada, incorporating relevant case studies to examine the location-specific co-benefits of emission reduction strategies. These case studies provide practical insights into how targeted interventions can yield both climate and public health benefits. The findings help policymakers prioritize actions that maximize societal benefits, optimize resources, and align environmental, health, and equity goals across regions. While the analysis is subject to uncertainties inherent in emissions data, modeling assumptions, and demographic inputs, it represents an important step toward location-specific co-benefits calculation using an adjoint sensitivity analysis. The results show significant spatial and temporal variation in the sensitivity of emissions impacts. The adjoint approach proves especially effective at capturing this variation, offering valuable insights for policymakers.

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