Current and future temperature suitability for autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be one of the most significant infectious diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality. In many parts of North America, including parts of southern Canada, competent malaria vectors Anopheles quadrimaculatus and Anopheles freeborni are present. With climate change, Canada may be increasingly suitable for transmission of the malaria parasite Plasmodium spp. The objective of this study was to identify the geographic locations in Canada where, and the frequency with which, temperature conditions may be suitable for autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum under current and projected climate. METHODS: Temperature and duration thresholds from historic Plasmodium spp. transmission studies were applied on gridded historical and projected data to compute yearly frequencies of suitable conditions in Canada. RESULTS: The resulting yearly frequencies from 2000 to 2023 show rising trends for both Plasmodium species, with surges reaching 34% of the Canadian population temporarily living under suitable temperature conditions for Plasmodium falciparum, and 56% for Plasmodium vivax. Projected populations percentages vary significantly with the Plasmodium species, climate change scenario, and climate model considered. CONCLUSION: Our results underscore the increasing risk of autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada due to climate change.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".