Limits on the ejecta mass during the search for kilonovae associated with neutron star-black hole mergers: A case study of S230518h, GW230529, S230627c and the low-significance candidate S240422ed
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers, detectable via their gravitational-wave (GW) emission, are expected to produce kilonovae (KNe). Four NSBH candidates have been identified and followed-up by more than fifty instruments since the start of the fourth GW observing run (O4), in May 2023, up to July 2024; however, no confirmed associated KN has been detected. This study evaluates ejecta properties from multimessenger observations to understand the absence of detectable KN: we use GW public information and joint observations taken from 05.2023 to 07.2024 (LVK, ATLAS, DECam, GECKO, GOTO, GRANDMA, SAGUARO, TESS, WINTER, ZTF). First, our analysis on follow-up observation strategies shows that, on average, more than 50% of the simulated KNe associated with NSBH mergers reach their peak luminosity around one day after merger in the $g$, $r$, $i$- bands, which is not necessarily covered for each NSBH GW candidate. We also analyze the trade-off between observation efficiency and the intrinsic properties of the KN emission, to understand the impact on how these constraints affect our ability to detect the KN, and underlying ejecta properties for each GW candidate. In particular, we can only confirm the kilonova was not missed for 1% of the GW230529 and S230627c sky localization region, given the large sky localization error of GW230529 and the large distance for S230627c and, their respective KN faint luminosities. More constraining, for S230518h, we infer the dynamical ejecta and postmerger disk wind ejecta ${m}_{\mathrm{dyn}},{m}_{\mathrm{wind}}<0.03{M}_{\ensuremath{\bigodot}}$ and the viewing angle $\ensuremath{\theta}>25\ifmmode^\circ\else\textdegree\fi{}$. Similarly, the nonastrophysical origin of S240422ed is likely further confirmed by the fact that we would have detected even a faint KN at the time and presumed distance of the S240422ed event candidate, within a minimum 45% credible region of the sky area, that can be larger depending on the KN scenario.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".