Occurrence of tornado outbreaks influenced by solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere coupling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The occurrence of tornado outbreaks in the United States is investigated in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system. The superposed epoch analysis of daily occurrence of tornadoes reveals a peak in the cumulative number of tornadoes near the interplanetary magnetic field sector boundary crossings. Most of the large tornado outbreaks are associated with high-density plasma adjacent to the heliospheric current sheet and with co-rotating interaction regions at the leading edge of high-speed streams. Large tornado outbreaks also followed impacts of interplanetary coronal mass ejections or occurred in the declining phase of major high-speed streams. We consider the role of aurorally generated atmospheric gravity waves in severe weather development leading to tornado outbreaks. While these gravity waves reach the troposphere with attenuated amplitudes, they can contribute to conditional symmetric instability release in frontal zones of extratropical cyclones leading to synoptic-scale weather conditions favouring formation of supercells in a strong wind shear environment and high tornado occurrence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".