USV-Affine Models Without Derivatives: A Bayesian Time-Series Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate the affine term structure models (ATSMs) with unspanned stochastic volatility (USV). Our aim is to test their ability to generate accurate cross-sectional behavior and time-series dynamics of bond yields. Comparing the restricted models and those with USV, we test whether they produce both reasonable estimates for the short rate variance and cross-sectional fit. Essentially, a joint approach from both time series and options data for estimating risk-neutral dynamics in ATSMs should be followed. Due to the scarcity of derivative data in emerging markets, we estimate the model using only time-series of bond yields. A Bayesian estimation approach combining Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Kalman filter is employed to recover the model parameters and filter out latent state variables. We further incorporate macro-economic indicators and GARCH-based volatility as external validation of the filtered latent volatility process. The A1(4)USV performs better both in and out of sample, even though the issue of a tension between time series and cross-section remains unresolved. Our findings suggest that even without derivative instruments, it is possible to identify and interpret risk-neutral dynamics and volatility risk using observable time-series data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".